A mere eight weeks in the past when the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or the reason for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is a rather hard query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding this season, while the victories have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus Manchester United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
